Debby exiting Florida but leaving behind a lot of water
I know that folks in Florida will be glad to see Debby moving on off the coast and out in to the Atlantic. The storm dumped anywhere from 12 to 20+ inches of rain across portions of Florida. Freshwater...
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Isaac getting stronger as it nears the Lesser Antilles as new depression...
TS Isaac Aimed at Greater Antilles and Florida The deep convection has really blossomed over the center of Isaac in recent hours. This is a sign that the stronger upper level winds are relaxing and...
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Isaac weak now but has potential for significant strengthening as it keeps...
Track map showing Isaac and Joyce Issac has been an under-performer so far and no one is complaining about that. The storm simply has not been able to “pull it together” and bundle all of the heat...
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Isaac proving to be tough to forecast
NOAA G-IV Jet The NOAA G-IV jet flew what is called a synoptic mission yesterday in the environment well out ahead of Isaac to sample the atmosphere. The data collected was input in to the various...
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Latest run of GFS puts Florida peninsula in Isaac’s path
As Isaac tries to gain organization today, its future track remains a big question mark. It seems fairly certain that over the next day or so that the storm will pass over parts of Hispaniola and Cuba....
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Major changes with models for 99L that could lead to significant impacts for...
GFS depiction of tropical cyclone over eastern Cuba in 96 hours There is a lot to discuss regarding the future track and intensity of 99L as it could affect literally millions of people from the...
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A few thoughts on Sandy
TS Sandy developing banding as it gathers strength in the Caribbean Sea There are no sweeping changes to discuss tonight with Sandy but I did want to pass on a few observations and thoughts before...
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Sandy nearly a hurricane and poised to become historic event one way or another
Sandy's wind field will ikely expand and could bring tropical storm conditions to a large part of the Southeast U.S. It is going to be a rough day in Jamaica as Sandy is nearing hurricane intensity...
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Bahamas getting the worst of Sandy now, then it’s time for East Coast of U.S....
NHC 5-day track map for Sandy puts a large portion of U.S. coast at risk Hurricane Sandy has been an impressive system to watch. It strengthened quite rapidly last night and blasted a small portion of...
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Wet for south Florida as tropical moisture streams out of Caribbean
Heavy rain threat for Florida over the next three days The NHC is monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms over the northern Caribbean Sea for possible development. However, the chances of that...
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Weak area of low pressure to bring rain to parts of Gulf Coast
Weak low pressure to bring periods of heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast There is a surface trough draped over portions of the Gulf of Mexico today that is likely to organize just enough so that low...
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Chantal not very well organized this morning as its future track and...
TS Chantal track and forecast models Looking at a satellite shot of Chantal right now, one would have a tough time believing that there is even a tropical storm out there. As noted by the NHC’s 5am...
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Chantal bringing rain to Hispaniola and that will be biggest issue today
Forecast track and model plots for TS Chantal Chantal is barely hanging on as a true tropical cyclone this morning. The cloud presentation is rather amorphous and does not resemble as well defined...
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Is Dorian poised to make a comeback?
Satellite view of ex-Dorian as it tries to make a comeback. Note the fanning out of the clouds now, indicating a more favorable upper level wind pattern. All of a sudden, the remnants of Dorian have...
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Remnants of Dorian looking better organized tonight as Flossie gets closer to...
Remnants of Dorian, now labeled as 91L, trying to make a comeback tonight The NHC has increased the probability of development for the remnants of what was once tropical storm Dorian to 50% over the...
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NHC close to issuing advisories again on Dorian
Water vapor satellite photo of ex-Dorian trying to organize enough to become a tropical storm again It looks like what was once tropical storm Dorian may be tropical storm Dorian again. The small...
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Dorian back for a limited time
Track map for TD Dorian The NHC began issuing advisories again on Dorian as a tropical depression early this morning. Top winds are near 35 mph, mostly in the southeast side of the circulation. In...
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Tropics showing signs of activity and of possible impacts in coming days
Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea that has potential for development over the coming days Just as we are about to end September, which was as quiet as you will likely ever see it, things...
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Will 97L become Karen and if so, how strong might it be?
Satellite shot of 97L There has been a noticeable increase in shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea over night. This makes sense due to the light...
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Potential is there for 97L but will that potential be reached or squandered?
97L with decent outflow developed as it heads towards the Gulf of Mexico Looking only at satellite images of 97L tonight, one would think a tropical storm has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea....
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